Not Optimistic
The following reflects my argument and conclusions at this time, knowing that the internet is forever, I caveat that with additional information or changes, my view may change. I hope it does.
I am not optimistic that the US is going to come out of this pandemic with much strength because of the division among the population that has been solidified by a lack of respect for expertise and because disinformation has made its way into mainstream beliefs. As an example of our inability to unify, I believe that if there was another 9/11-like attack we would have two widely different reactions from our divided populus.
Culturally, there is a lack of respect for experts, which has lead to conspiracy theorists being your nextdoor neighbor rather than the guy deep in the woods with a doomsday surplus. Additionally, the various false premises that were initially spread by US adversaries over social media (government citation, also DoD) have become rooted as truth in many people’s minds, leading to a high percentage of the population predisposed to draw false conclusions about important topics.
I am entering a PhD program in Leadership Studies this fall and my pessimism probably isn’t the proper outlook a leader should hold. A leader is to be realistic and predictive, while also remaining positive and overseeing course correction. I am not at the point of positivity because I am unable to see a plan for correction. There have always been those in this country who are off their rocker, but lately there seem to be more people than previous years who feel entitled to their own beliefs over facts regarding an issue that is affects the entire country.
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What makes me qualified to share my concerns? (Pretend I am male as you read my qualifications, it will sit better with you). I have an accumulation of experience following agencies: The US Central Intelligence Agency, the US Department of State, the US Department of Defense, the US Department of Homeland Security. I have worked among our government’s most highly trained, highly education, and highly respected truth seekers in the intelligence field, which is the female way of saying I was one of those people, so consider giving me some respect before you dismiss my argument.
Although my experience was concentrated in military and government, I can say that especially at the higher levels of analysis among the top tier agencies, the people in these jobs are not drawing conclusions based on being fed “USA #1” propoganda. These individuals are taught to analyze the past mistakes of their respective agencies in hopes of consistently improving the system and preventing future errors. They are encouraged to speak truth to power, to ensure they are not advising based on their own biases.
In addition to experience, I have a master’s degree in Homeland Security from Pennsylvania State University — which means I dedicated two years of my life to researching and making assessments regarding our country’s security threats — from pandemics and natural disasters to terrorist attacks. I have a bachelor’s degree in Psychology, which was four years of assessing individual and group tendencies, pathologies, and human nature. All of my professors in these fields prioritize protecting and helping people over politics.
I recognize that US academic and government insitutions make errors and have biases, however, without trust that the majority of these institutions and the people that make them up are well-trained and well-intended, everything becomes a conspiracy theory and suddenly there are no truths or paths to seek truth. I don’t trust blindly, but I trust generally from being inside these organizations.
I trust the general apolitical nature of most of the current top leadership in these government organizations. Of course, they are human, thus are not immune to having opinions, but most of these top leaders are generally able to leave that part of them at home when it comes to doing their job of seeking truth and leading the country. Their leadership has influenced me to stay open and central politically in the process of seeking and sharing unbiased assessments. These experts are aware that it is all too easy to confirm yourself (cognitive biases).
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Now back to my argument…
If US citizens wanted to become experts themselves, they could come close, which may be why there is a cultural lack of respect for the real experts, who tend to have a more indepth understanding than a citizen on scientific topics. The access to nearly limitless information is easily abused if not used in congruence with expertise. US citizens have access to amazing sources of information to educate themselves on everything from how to code in Python to learning the country’s intelligence failures over the years (CIA approved for release 2005). We should be grateful for the amount of information we have, but also cautious in our self-built expertise. It is easy to do a Google search before your doctor’s appointment and think you have better answers than your doctor, however a good citizen and good doctor will use this self-directed research to guide the conversation. Your Google search does not serve as a final diagnosis.
I am all about self-education and questioning authority, but I also learned the value of roles among citizens from my time in the military and in intelligence organizations. No single person can know everything, so expertise is delegated. As you spend time developing your expertise, you are called upon for advice and trusted by non-experts in your area, like top leaders looking to create policy. You are part of a team of various experts that have unique knowledge which blends and forms an image of the big picture. If an expert is a toxic person, this of course can lead to abuse of power and withholding of information for personal agendas. It can also lead to group think if within the experts there is not respect for diverse thought. There is always room for error, however, in a quality team environment with people seeking the truth and maintaining awareness of their own potential biases, this system generally works well.
Unfortunately, with the influence from adversaries, people are becoming their own experts on false information. A false premise can lead to false conclusions. False premises were spread over social media by Russia to influence and divide the United States population (report). This is a fact, a true premise that has been proven by experts and should be accepted by society (DNI document). It is not easy to identify disinformation when it comes across your screen, I have friends who were former intelligence officers who have sent me articles from a news source found to be run by Russian media. This means they were unknowingly reading this media and forming opions based on its intended influence. The population needs to understand that they may have been influenced by people working against the United States. Because portions of the population have aligned themselves and their identity with these influences, it would take tremendous courage to admit they were wrong, if they could even identify they were given false information.
- “An example of this disinformation came to light in March, when Russia Today and Sputnik broadcast that hand-washing was ineffective against coronavirus. Another “alternative news source” in Russia reported that there was no pandemic and that the deaths in Italy were the common flu…” (DoD)
- “[The Russian] social media campaign was designed to further a broader Kremlin objective: sowing discord in the U.S. by inflaming passions on a range of divisive issues…(report)
- …with overt efforts by Russian Government agencies, state-funded media, third-party intermediaries, and paid social media users or “trolls,” (DNI document).
- 3,393 advertisements purchased (a total 3,519 advertisements total were released after more were identified by the company);(report)
- More than 11.4 million American users exposed to those advertisements; (report).
- Moscow’s campaign aimed at the US election reflected years of investment in its capabilities… (DNI document)
Or if you want a quick summary:
Conspiracy theorists used to be in the backwoods shouting their falsehoods to the wildlife and documenting their twisted reality for future manifesto readers, but now they are your neighbors, family, and coworkers. They believe they know better than experts, they believe the experts are out to control them. They have taken healthy paranoia to the unhealthy levels. They take the evolution of truth in science (the process that slowly unravels towards truth and can sometimes contradict itself when new information is available) to claim that research can’t be trusted because its conclusion changed. It changed because it evolved from further analysis.
The biggest challenge to correcting false statements by debunking is the persistence of human memory. The influence of false information remains even if it has been corrected. Researchers call this phenomenon “continued influence effect,” which is one of the main reasons why an evidence-based approach fails to correct a false narrative. (countering tactics)
How am I supposed to live in a country where my neighbors, colleagues, fellow citizens are conspiracy theorists who act on their own beliefs and feelings over those of experts? How am I supposed to find common ground with someone who is living in their own world with their own beliefs and feelings overriding research and facts? How do I respect a school teacher who does not believe that kids attending classes at home or online will negatively affect poor communities? Or a person who runs a study abroad company, whose business success will rely on some type of cure or prevention for the virus, but is opposed vaccinations? If people aren’t even directed by their own self interest — the most American direction of them all — how do we live together?
The only way to live well in this country is to stay in your own bubble and that is a ridiculous way to live. The pandemic initially brought solidarity and patriotism to most parts of the world (now understandable strife in some areas because of genuine economic issues). The fact that the US is unable to come together in a time of crisis due to past division and the inability distinguish bad sources from reliable ones means that our future is bleak. If we can’t come together over a non-human, a-political enemy, such as a virus, how will we ever come together again against the real adversaries causing us harm and division?